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Spjelkavik vs Nardo Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 13:00

Spjelkavik

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Nardo

PPG 0.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-14.0%0-22.8%0-31.3%0-4+0.6%1 1-06.1%1-18.6%1-26.0%1-32.8%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.6%2-19.3%2-26.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.7%3-16.7%3-24.7%3-32.2%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-16.0%4+-24.2%4+-32.0%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.2% — — —

Draw 22.2% — — —

Away win 23.6% — — —

Over 2.5 67.0% — — —

Over 3.5 44.5% — — —

BTTS 63.9% — — —

Home O1.5 61.8% — — —

Away O1.5 41.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.9%

H 54% / xG 2.2-1.4 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.6%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 3–1 6.7%

#4 2–0 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Spjelkavik2.2

Nardo1.4

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SPJELKAVIK · PPG 1.00

NARDO · PPG 0.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.75 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Spjelkavik (H) 54.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Nardo (A) 23.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Spjelkavik face Nardo in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2 on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Spjelkavik a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Nardo 24%, so Spjelkavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Spjelkavik and 1.4 for Nardo (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Spjelkavik are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.17 for Nardo.

Spjelkavik vs Nardo Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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