Today / Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2 / Spjelkavik vs Byasen

Spjelkavik vs Byasen Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 13:00

Spjelkavik

PPG 0.75 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Byasen

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-15.1%0-25.5%0-34.0%0-4+3.6%1 1-03.7%1-18.1%1-28.7%1-36.3%1-4+5.7%2 2-02.9%2-16.4%2-26.9%2-35.0%2-4+4.5%3 3-01.6%3-13.4%3-23.7%3-32.6%3-4+2.4%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.9%4+-22.1%4+-31.5%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.0% 37.0% 2.70 -13.6%

Draw 22.8% 24.4% 4.10 -3.9%

Away win 45.2% 50.0% 2.00 -9.6%

Over 2.5 65.8% 76.9% 1.30 -14.5%

Over 3.5 43.1% 56.5% 1.77 -23.7%

BTTS 63.4% 78.1% 1.28 -18.9%

Home O1.5 46.9% 57.5% 1.74 -18.4%

Away O1.5 63.7% 64.9% 1.54 -1.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob63.4%

A 45% / xG 1.6-2.2 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.1%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–2 6.9%

#4 2–1 6.4%

#5 1–3 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Spjelkavik1.6

Byasen2.2

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 43.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SPJELKAVIK · PPG 0.75

BYASEN · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.75) vs Home POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Spjelkavik (H) 32.0%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -13.6%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -3.9%

Byasen (A) 45.2%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -9.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Spjelkavik face Byasen in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2 on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Spjelkavik a 32% chance, the draw 23% and Byasen 45%, so Byasen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Spjelkavik and 2.2 for Byasen (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Spjelkavik are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 1.75 for Byasen. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +2.7%. This match finished 4-0.

Spjelkavik vs Byasen Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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