Monaco vs Auxerre Prediction— France - Ligue 1

France - Ligue 1 Regular Season - 30 Stade Louis II· Monaco Sunday, April 19, 2026 13:00

Monaco PPG 2.07

2-2 MISS

Auxerre PPG 0.57

Home· +8.6% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

68% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Monaco face Auxerre in France - Ligue 1 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Monaco a 71% chance, the draw 18% and Auxerre 12%, so Monaco are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Monaco and 0.8 for Auxerre (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Monaco are averaging 2.07 points per game versus 0.57 for Auxerre. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +8.6%. This match finished 2-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 70.5%

Odds: 1.54 EV: +8.6%

Draw 18.0%

Odds: 4.20 EV: -24.4%

Away 11.5%

Odds: 5.60 EV: -35.6%

Model lean: Home

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 57.6% Odds: 1.65 -5.0%

Over 3.5 35.2% Odds: 2.65 -6.7%

BTTS 47.9% Odds: 1.70 -18.6%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 3-0 ✘

5th 1-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Monaco

2.22

Auxerre

0.77

Model SuggestionHome +8.6% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home. 

League Track Record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5/Under 62%

BTTS/No 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -18.0%

Bet Hit 50% (16 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

68%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.07), Away POOR (0.57) - Strong consensus