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Monaco vs Auxerre Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Regular Season - 30 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Monaco

PPG 2.07 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Auxerre

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 70.5% vs bookmaker-implied 64.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-13.9%0-21.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.1%1-18.6%1-23.3%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.4%2-19.5%2-23.7%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.2%3-17.1%3-22.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-08.6%4+-16.6%4+-22.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.5% 64.9% 1.54 +8.6%

Draw 18.0% 23.8% 4.20 -24.4%

Away win 11.5% 17.9% 5.60 -35.6%

Over 2.5 57.6% 60.6% 1.65 -5.0%

Over 3.5 35.2% 37.7% 2.65 -6.7%

BTTS 47.9% 58.8% 1.70 -18.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -5.5%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.9%

H 70% / xG 2.2-0.8 / O2.5 58% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.4%

#2 1–0 11.1%

#3 2–1 9.5%

#4 3–0 9.2%

#5 1–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Monaco2.2

Auxerre0.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.6% · O3.5 PROB 35.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MONACO · PPG 2.07

AUXERRE · PPG 0.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

68%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.07), Away POOR (0.57) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Monaco (H) 70.5%

ODDS 1.54 · IMPLIED 64.9% EV +8.6%

Draw 18.0%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -24.4%

Auxerre (A) 11.5%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV -35.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Monaco face Auxerre in France - Ligue 1 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Monaco a 71% chance, the draw 18% and Auxerre 12%, so Monaco are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Monaco and 0.8 for Auxerre (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Monaco are averaging 2.07 points per game versus 0.57 for Auxerre. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +8.6%. This match finished 2-2.

Monaco vs Auxerre Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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