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Nottm Forest vs Burnley Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 33 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Nottm Forest

PPG 0.94 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDLD

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Burnley

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDLD

// Model verdict

Home 65% chance

Model probability 55.0% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-16.4%0-23.2%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.2%1-111.2%1-25.6%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.8%2-19.8%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.7%3-15.7%3-22.9%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-13.7%4+-21.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.0% 69.4% 1.44 -20.8%

Draw 23.5% 23.8% 4.20 -1.3%

Away win 21.5% 13.9% 7.20 +54.8%

Over 2.5 51.8% 58.8% 1.70 -11.9%

Over 3.5 29.7% 37.0% 2.70 -19.8%

BTTS 52.2% 54.6% 1.83 -4.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.2%

H 55% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 11.2%

#2 1–1 11.2%

#3 2–0 9.8%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nottm Forest1.8

Burnley1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.8% · O3.5 PROB 29.7%

Form & verdict PPG

NOTTM FOREST · PPG 0.94

BURNLEY · PPG 0.56

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

65%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.94) > Away POOR (0.56)

Win probability 1X2

Nottm Forest (H) 55.0%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -20.8%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -1.3%

Burnley (A) 21.5%

ODDS 7.20 · IMPLIED 13.9% EV +54.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nottm Forest face Burnley in England - Premier League on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nottm Forest a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Burnley 22%, so Nottm Forest are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Nottm Forest and 1.0 for Burnley (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nottm Forest are averaging 0.94 points per game versus 0.56 for Burnley. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +54.8%. This match finished 4-1.

Nottm Forest vs Burnley Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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