Nottm Forest vs Burnley Prediction & Tips

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England - Premier League Regular Season - 33 City Ground· Nottingham Sunday, April 19, 2026 13:00

Nottm Forest PPG 0.94

4-1 MISS

Burnley PPG 0.56

Away· +54.8% ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 55.0%

Odds: 1.44 EV: -20.8%

Draw 23.5%

Odds: 4.20 EV: -1.3%

Away 21.5%

Odds: 7.20 EV: +54.8%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 51.8% Odds: 1.70 -11.9%

Over 3.5 29.7% Odds: 2.70 -19.8%

BTTS 52.2% Odds: 1.83 -4.5%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0 ✘

2nd 1-1 ✘

3rd 2-0 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Nottm Forest

1.75

Burnley

1.00

Model SuggestionHome -20.8% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -20.8% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+54.8%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.94) > Away POOR (0.56)