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Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Group Stage ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 18:00

Atlético Ottawa

PPG 1.83 · HOME

UPCOMING

Pacific FC

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-13.1%0-22.0%0-30.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-05.7%1-17.5%1-24.9%1-32.1%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.0%2-19.2%2-26.0%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.7%3-17.5%3-24.9%3-32.1%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-06.2%4+-18.1%4+-25.3%4+-32.3%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.2% 60.6% 1.65 -8.9%

Draw 21.7% 25.6% 3.90 -9.2%

Away win 23.1% 22.7% 4.40 +1.0%

Over 2.5 67.0% 65.4% 1.53 +2.5%

Over 3.5 44.5% 43.5% 2.30 +2.4%

BTTS 64.5% 66.7% 1.50 -3.3%

Home O1.5 61.9% 64.5% 1.55 -4.0%

Away O1.5 40.5% 36.4% 2.75 +11.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 11.1%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob64.5%

H 55% / xG 2.4-1.3 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.2%

#2 1–1 7.5%

#3 3–1 7.5%

#4 2–0 7.0%

#5 2–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atlético Ottawa2.4

Pacific FC1.3

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLÉTICO OTTAWA · PPG 1.83

PACIFIC FC · PPG 0.40

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.13 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Atlético Ottawa (H) 55.2%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -8.9%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -9.2%

Pacific FC (A) 23.1%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +1.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atlético Ottawa face Pacific FC in Canada - Premier League on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atlético Ottawa a 55% chance, the draw 22% and Pacific FC 23%, so Atlético Ottawa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Atlético Ottawa and 1.3 for Pacific FC (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atlético Ottawa are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 0.40 for Pacific FC. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +13.8%.

Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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