Today / England - Premier League / Everton vs Liverpool

Everton vs Liverpool Prediction— England - Premier League

Regular Season - 33 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Everton

PPG 1.38 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Liverpool

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 56.1% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-18.2%0-25.4%0-32.4%0-4+1.0%1 1-09.1%1-112.0%1-27.9%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.6%2-18.7%2-25.7%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.2%3-14.2%3-22.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.1%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.5% 31.7% 3.15 +27.6%

Draw 25.4% 29.9% 3.35 -14.9%

Away win 34.2% 45.5% 2.20 -24.8%

Over 2.5 52.3% 54.6% 1.83 -4.3%

Over 3.5 30.1% 32.3% 3.10 -6.7%

BTTS 56.1% 60.6% 1.65 -7.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob56.1%

H 40% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 9.1%

#3 2–1 8.7%

#4 0–1 8.2%

#5 1–2✓ 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Everton1.5

Liverpool1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 30.1%

Form & verdict PPG

EVERTON · PPG 1.38

LIVERPOOL · PPG 1.31

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.38), Away AVERAGE (1.31)

Win probability 1X2

Everton (H) 40.5%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV +27.6%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -14.9%

Liverpool (A) 34.2%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -24.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Everton face Liverpool in England - Premier League on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Everton a 41% chance, the draw 25% and Liverpool 34%, so Everton are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Everton and 1.3 for Liverpool (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Everton are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.31 for Liverpool. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +27.6%. This match finished 1-2.

Everton vs Liverpool Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - Premier League Predictions