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Aston Villa vs Sunderland Prediction— England - Premier League

Regular Season - 33 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Aston Villa

PPG 2.00 · HOME

4 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Sunderland

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.1% vs bookmaker-implied 58.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.3%0-18.7%0-23.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.0%1-112.3%1-24.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.2%2-18.6%2-23.3%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.3%3-14.0%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-11.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.1% 58.5% 1.71 -10.9%

Draw 27.4% 27.0% 3.70 +1.4%

Away win 20.5% 21.3% 4.70 -3.6%

Over 2.5 37.1% 52.6% 1.90 -29.5%

Over 3.5 17.6% 30.8% 3.25 -42.8%

BTTS 40.5% 55.6% 1.80 -27.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob40.5%

H 52% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.0%

#2 1–1 12.3%

#3 0–0 11.3%

#4 2–0 11.2%

#5 0–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aston Villa1.4

Sunderland0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.1% · O3.5 PROB 17.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ASTON VILLA · PPG 2.00

SUNDERLAND · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=52.1%

Win probability 1X2

Aston Villa (H) 52.1%

ODDS 1.71 · IMPLIED 58.5% EV -10.9%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +1.4%

Sunderland (A) 20.5%

ODDS 4.70 · IMPLIED 21.3% EV -3.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aston Villa face Sunderland in England - Premier League on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aston Villa a 52% chance, the draw 27% and Sunderland 21%, so Aston Villa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Aston Villa and 0.8 for Sunderland (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aston Villa are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.06 for Sunderland. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.4%. This match finished 4-3.

Aston Villa vs Sunderland Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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