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Notodden vs Sotra Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 13:30

Notodden

PPG 0.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sotra

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-112.2%0-28.2%0-33.7%0-4+1.7%1 1-09.6%1-112.9%1-28.7%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.1%2-16.8%2-24.6%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-01.8%3-12.4%3-21.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.0% 36.4% 2.75 -12.0%

Draw 27.0% 29.0% 3.45 -4.1%

Away win 41.0% 44.4% 2.25 -7.8%

Over 2.5 50.0% 58.8% 1.70 -15.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 36.4% 2.75 -12.6%

BTTS 52.3% 64.5% 1.55 -18.9%

Home O1.5 35.0% 44.4% 2.25 -21.3%

Away O1.5 41.9% 50.0% 2.00 -16.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 32%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -22.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 17%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.3%

A 41% / xG 1.1-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 9.0%

#3 0–1 12.2%

#4 1–2 8.7%

#5 0–2 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Notodden1.1

Sotra1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

NOTODDEN · PPG 0.40

SOTRA · PPG 1.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.29, combined xG 2.40 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Notodden (H) 32.0%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -12.0%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -4.1%

Sotra (A) 41.0%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -7.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Notodden face Sotra in Norway - 2. Division - Group 1 on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Notodden a 32% chance, the draw 27% and Sotra 41%, so Sotra are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Notodden and 1.3 for Sotra (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Notodden are averaging 0.40 points per game versus 1.83 for Sotra.

Notodden vs Sotra Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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