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Arendal vs Vidar Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 13:00

Arendal

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Vidar

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 61.8% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-14.7%0-22.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.7%1-19.6%1-24.3%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.0%2-19.9%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.6%3-16.8%3-23.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.3%4+-15.6%4+-22.5%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.0% 73.5% 1.36 -22.5%

Draw 22.5% 20.8% 4.80 +4.8%

Away win 20.4% 16.7% 6.00 +13.4%

Over 2.5 60.7% 73.5% 1.36 -17.4%

Over 3.5 37.5% 51.8% 1.93 -27.6%

BTTS 55.4% 66.7% 1.50 -16.9%

Home O1.5 61.8% 76.9% 1.30 -19.7%

Away O1.5 24.7% 33.9% 2.95 -16.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 32%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -22.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.4%

H 57% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–0 11.0%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.7%

#5 3–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arendal2.1

Vidar0.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ARENDAL · PPG 1.00

VIDAR · PPG 0.20

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.16 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Arendal (H) 57.0%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -22.5%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +4.8%

Vidar (A) 20.4%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +13.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arendal face Vidar in Norway - 2. Division - Group 1 on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arendal a 57% chance, the draw 23% and Vidar 20%, so Arendal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Arendal and 0.9 for Vidar (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arendal are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.20 for Vidar. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +17.6%.

Arendal vs Vidar Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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