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Hinna vs Varhaug Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4

Regular Season - 9 ·Friday, May 29, 2026, 16:30

Hinna

PPG 1.67 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY O1.5

Varhaug

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs Home GOOD (1.67)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-13.0%0-24.7%0-35.0%0-4+8.5%1 1-01.4%1-14.5%1-27.1%1-37.5%1-4+12.9%2 2-01.1%2-13.4%2-25.4%2-35.6%2-4+9.7%3 3-00.5%3-11.7%3-22.7%3-32.8%3-4+4.9%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.9%4+-21.4%4+-31.5%4+-4+2.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 16.4% — — —

Draw 19.9% — — —

Away win 63.7% — — —

Over 2.5 72.7% — — —

Over 3.5 54.6% — — —

BTTS 63.4% — — —

Home O1.5 44.4% — — —

Away O1.5 82.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)3.1 BTTS prob63.4%

A 64% / xG 1.5-3.1 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 7.5%

#2 1–2 7.1%

#3 1–4 5.9%

#4 2–3 5.6%

#5 2–2 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hinna1.5

Varhaug3.1

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.7% · O3.5 PROB 54.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HINNA · PPG 1.67

VARHAUG · PPG 2.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs Home GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Hinna (H) 16.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 19.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Varhaug (A) 63.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Hinna face Varhaug in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4 on Friday, May 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hinna a 16% chance, the draw 20% and Varhaug 64%, so Varhaug are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Hinna and 3.1 for Varhaug (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hinna are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 2.33 for Varhaug. This match finished 0-1.

Hinna vs Varhaug Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4

Match Preview & Prediction

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