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Ipswich Town vs Middlesbrough Prediction— England - Championship

Matchday 43 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 11:00

Ipswich Town

PPG 2.19 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDDW

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Middlesbrough

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDLL

// Model verdict

Home 47% chance

Model probability 52.2% vs bookmaker-implied 44.4% — a clear edge.

+17.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-17.1%0-23.6%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.5%1-111.7%1-25.9%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.6%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.2%3-15.3%3-22.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.1%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.2% 44.4% 2.25 +17.4%

Draw 24.5% 28.6% 3.50 -14.2%

Away win 23.3% 33.9% 2.95 -31.3%

Over 2.5 49.6% 57.1% 1.75 -13.2%

Over 3.5 27.7% 34.7% 2.88 -20.2%

BTTS 51.4% 61.7% 1.62 -16.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -5.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.4%

H 52% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–0 11.5%

#3 2–1 9.6%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 0–1 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ipswich Town1.6

Middlesbrough1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.6% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

IPSWICH TOWN · PPG 2.19

MIDDLESBROUGH · PPG 1.71

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

47%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.19) > Away GOOD (1.71)

Win probability 1X2

Ipswich Town (H) 52.2%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +17.4%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -14.2%

Middlesbrough (A) 23.3%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -31.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ipswich Town face Middlesbrough in England - Championship on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ipswich Town a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Middlesbrough 23%, so Ipswich Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Ipswich Town and 1.0 for Middlesbrough (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ipswich Town are averaging 2.19 points per game versus 1.71 for Middlesbrough. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +17.4%. This match finished 2-2.

Ipswich Town vs Middlesbrough Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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