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GBK Kokkola vs Narpes Kraft Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Group C ·Wednesday, July 15, 2026, 15:30

GBK Kokkola

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Narpes Kraft

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 6.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 79.5% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.2%0-10.4%0-20.6%0-30.6%0-4+0.9%1 1-00.5%1-11.6%1-22.3%1-32.2%1-4+3.2%2 2-01.0%2-12.8%2-24.1%2-34.0%2-4+5.8%3 3-01.2%3-13.4%3-24.9%3-34.8%3-4+7.0%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-17.8%4+-211.2%4+-310.8%4+-4+15.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 50.0% 2.00 +6.0%

Draw 17.3% 26.3% 3.80 -20.6%

Away win 29.6% 37.0% 2.70 -12.0%

Over 2.5 79.5% 83.3% 1.20 -4.6%

Over 3.5 69.1% 69.4% 1.44 -0.5%

BTTS 72.7% 82.0% 1.22 -11.3%

Home O1.5 76.2% 75.2% 1.33 +1.4%

Away O1.5 69.1% 61.7% 1.62 +11.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 87%

BTTS 80%

Score Hit 27%

ROI 5.1%

Bet Hit 87%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.6 xG (away)2.9 BTTS prob72.7%

H 53% / xG 3.6-2.9 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 73%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–2 4.9%

#2 3–3 4.8%

#3 4–2 4.4%

#4 4–3 4.3%

#5 2–2 4.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

GBK Kokkola3.6

Narpes Kraft2.9

COMBINED 6.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.5% · O3.5 PROB 69.1%

Form & verdict PPG

GBK KOKKOLA · PPG 1.50

NARPES KRAFT · PPG 1.67

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

GBK Kokkola (H) 53.0%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +6.0%

Draw 17.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -20.6%

Narpes Kraft (A) 29.6%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -12.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

GBK Kokkola face Narpes Kraft in Finland - Kakkonen Group C on Wednesday, July 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives GBK Kokkola a 53% chance, the draw 17% and Narpes Kraft 30%, so GBK Kokkola are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.6 for GBK Kokkola and 2.9 for Narpes Kraft (6.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-2. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 73% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, GBK Kokkola are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.67 for Narpes Kraft. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +32.2%.

GBK Kokkola vs Narpes Kraft Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Match Preview & Prediction

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