Today / Finland - Kakkonen Group C / VPS B vs Huima/Urho

VPS B vs Huima/Urho Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Group C ·Sunday, July 5, 2026, 15:00

VPS B

PPG 1.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Huima/Urho

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 81.7% vs bookmaker-implied 90.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.3%0-10.8%0-21.1%0-31.0%0-4+1.3%1 1-00.9%1-12.5%1-23.4%1-33.1%1-4+4.1%2 2-01.4%2-13.9%2-25.3%2-34.8%2-4+6.4%3 3-01.5%3-14.0%3-25.4%3-34.9%3-4+6.6%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-16.6%4+-29.1%4+-38.3%4+-4+11.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.6% 60.2% 1.66 -21.0%

Draw 17.7% 23.5% 4.25 -14.9%

Away win 34.7% 29.0% 3.45 +19.7%

Over 2.5 81.7% 90.1% 1.11 -9.3%

Over 3.5 62.8% 73.5% 1.36 -14.6%

BTTS 74.2% — — —

Home O1.5 75.0% — — —

Away O1.5 69.2% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)2.7 BTTS prob74.2%

H 48% / xG 3.1-2.7 / O2.5 82% / BTTS 74%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–2 5.4%

#2 2–2 5.3%

#3 3–3 4.9%

#4 2–3 4.8%

#5 4–2 4.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

VPS B3.1

Huima/Urho2.7

COMBINED 5.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 81.7% · O3.5 PROB 62.8%

Form & verdict PPG

VPS B · PPG 1.20

HUIMA/URHO · PPG 1.40

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.20), Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

VPS B (H) 47.6%

ODDS 1.66 · IMPLIED 60.2% EV -21.0%

Draw 17.7%

ODDS 4.25 · IMPLIED 23.5% EV -14.9%

Huima/Urho (A) 34.7%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +19.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

VPS B face Huima/Urho in Finland - Kakkonen Group C on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives VPS B a 48% chance, the draw 18% and Huima/Urho 35%, so VPS B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for VPS B and 2.7 for Huima/Urho (5.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-2. There is a 82% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 74% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, VPS B are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.40 for Huima/Urho. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +19.7%.