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LKS Lodz B vs NKP Podhale Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Regular Season - 28 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 10:00

LKS Lodz B

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

NKP Podhale

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+20.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-114.4%0-212.4%0-37.1%0-4+4.5%1 1-06.4%1-110.9%1-29.4%1-35.4%1-4+3.4%2 2-02.4%2-14.1%2-23.6%2-32.0%2-4+1.3%3 3-00.6%3-11.0%3-20.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 16.2% 31.3% 3.20 -48.2%

Draw 23.5% 30.3% 3.30 -22.4%

Away win 60.4% 50.0% 2.00 +20.8%

Over 2.5 45.1% 57.1% 1.75 -21.1%

Over 3.5 23.8% — — —

BTTS 43.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob43.6%

A 60% / xG 0.8-1.7 / O2.5 45% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 14.4%

#2 0–2 12.4%

#3 1–1✓ 10.9%

#4 1–2 9.4%

#5 0–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

LKS Lodz B0.8

NKP Podhale1.7

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.1% · O3.5 PROB 23.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LKS LODZ B · PPG 1.00

NKP PODHALE · PPG 1.23

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.23)

Win probability 1X2

LKS Lodz B (H) 16.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -48.2%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -22.4%

NKP Podhale (A) 60.4%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +20.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

LKS Lodz B face NKP Podhale in Poland - II Liga - East on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives LKS Lodz B a 16% chance, the draw 24% and NKP Podhale 60%, so NKP Podhale are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for LKS Lodz B and 1.7 for NKP Podhale (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, LKS Lodz B are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.23 for NKP Podhale. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +20.8%. This match finished 1-1.

LKS Lodz B vs NKP Podhale Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Match Preview & Prediction

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