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Brisbane City vs Brisbane Roar B Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Regular Season - 17 ·Sunday, July 5, 2026, 05:45

Brisbane City

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Brisbane Roar B

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 75.5% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-11.6%0-21.4%0-30.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-02.7%1-14.8%1-24.2%1-32.4%1-4+1.6%2 2-04.0%2-17.0%2-26.1%2-33.6%2-4+2.3%3 3-03.9%3-16.8%3-26.0%3-33.5%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-05.8%4+-110.2%4+-28.9%4+-35.2%4+-4+3.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.5% 62.5% 1.60 -9.6%

Draw 19.9% 22.2% 4.50 -6.3%

Away win 23.6% 25.0% 4.00 -3.4%

Over 2.5 75.5% 82.0% 1.22 -7.9%

Over 3.5 53.2% 61.7% 1.62 -13.8%

BTTS 69.1% 78.1% 1.28 -11.6%

Home O1.5 75.0% 78.1% 1.28 -4.0%

Away O1.5 49.8% 51.3% 1.95 -2.9%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 68%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob69.1%

H 56% / xG 2.9-1.8 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.0%

#2 3–1 6.8%

#3 2–2 6.1%

#4 3–2 6.0%

#5 1–1 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brisbane City2.9

Brisbane Roar B1.8

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.5% · O3.5 PROB 53.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BRISBANE CITY · PPG 1.00

BRISBANE ROAR B · PPG 0.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.38)

Win probability 1X2

Brisbane City (H) 56.5%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -9.6%

Draw 19.9%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -6.3%

Brisbane Roar B (A) 23.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -3.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brisbane City face Brisbane Roar B in Australia - NPL Queensland on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brisbane City a 56% chance, the draw 20% and Brisbane Roar B 24%, so Brisbane City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Brisbane City and 1.8 for Brisbane Roar B (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brisbane City are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.38 for Brisbane Roar B. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +2.1%.

Brisbane City vs Brisbane Roar B Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Match Preview & Prediction

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