Today / Australia - NPL Queensland / Gold C. Knights vs Q. Lions

Gold C. Knights vs Q. Lions Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Regular Season - 12 ·Tuesday, July 7, 2026, 09:30

Gold C. Knights

PPG 2.67 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Q. Lions

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.1% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-13.1%0-23.7%0-33.0%0-4+3.1%1 1-02.5%1-16.0%1-27.2%1-35.8%1-4+6.1%2 2-02.4%2-15.9%2-27.1%2-35.7%2-4+6.0%3 3-01.6%3-13.8%3-24.6%3-33.7%3-4+3.9%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.9%4+-23.5%4+-32.8%4+-4+3.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.9% 29.4% 3.40 +18.7%

Draw 21.7% 25.0% 4.00 -7.9%

Away win 43.5% 57.1% 1.75 -23.9%

Over 2.5 72.1% 75.2% 1.33 -4.1%

Over 3.5 52.6% 55.6% 1.80 -5.3%

BTTS 69.4% 76.9% 1.30 -9.8%

Home O1.5 55.1% 47.6% 2.10 +15.7%

Away O1.5 68.2% 69.4% 1.44 -1.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 81%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 81%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob69.4%

A 44% / xG 2.0-2.4 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.2%

#2 2–2 7.1%

#3 1–1 6.0%

#4 2–1✓ 5.9%

#5 1–3 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gold C. Knights2.0

Q. Lions2.4

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.1% · O3.5 PROB 52.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GOLD C. KNIGHTS · PPG 2.67

Q. LIONS · PPG 2.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.67) > Away EXCELLENT (2.25)

Win probability 1X2

Gold C. Knights (H) 34.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +18.7%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.9%

Q. Lions (A) 43.5%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -23.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gold C. Knights face Q. Lions in Australia - NPL Queensland on Tuesday, July 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gold C. Knights a 35% chance, the draw 22% and Q. Lions 44%, so Q. Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Gold C. Knights and 2.4 for Q. Lions (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gold C. Knights are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 2.25 for Q. Lions. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +18.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Gold C. Knights vs Q. Lions Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - NPL Queensland Predictions