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Rovaniemi vs PKKU Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Sunday, July 5, 2026

Rovaniemi

PPG 1.83 · HOME

UPCOMING

PKKU

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-16.9%0-24.0%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.0%1-111.5%1-26.6%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.5%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.6%3-15.3%3-23.0%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.2%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.1% — — —

Draw 25.1% — — —

Away win 27.8% — — —

Over 2.5 57.4% — — —

Over 3.5 35.4% — — —

BTTS 55.6% — — —

Home O1.5 53.1% — — —

Away O1.5 35.9% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.6%

H 47% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 8.3%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 0–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rovaniemi1.7

PKKU1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.4% · O3.5 PROB 35.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ROVANIEMI · PPG 1.83

PKKU · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.83), Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Rovaniemi (H) 47.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

PKKU (A) 27.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Rovaniemi face PKKU in Finland - Ykkonen on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rovaniemi a 47% chance, the draw 25% and PKKU 28%, so Rovaniemi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Rovaniemi and 1.1 for PKKU (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rovaniemi are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.67 for PKKU.

Rovaniemi vs PKKU Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Match Preview & Prediction

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