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TPV vs JJK Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Group Stage ·Sunday, July 5, 2026, 12:00

TPV

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

JJK

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.1% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-16.3%0-27.6%0-36.1%0-4+6.5%1 1-03.2%1-17.8%1-29.4%1-37.5%1-4+8.0%2 2-02.0%2-14.8%2-25.8%2-34.6%2-4+4.9%3 3-00.8%3-12.0%3-22.4%3-31.9%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.8%4+-21.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.6% 23.8% 4.20 -5.6%

Draw 20.8% 25.0% 4.00 -10.1%

Away win 57.5% 61.7% 1.62 -6.9%

Over 2.5 67.1% 75.2% 1.33 -10.8%

Over 3.5 43.9% 54.6% 1.83 -19.7%

BTTS 63.3% 73.5% 1.36 -13.9%

Home O1.5 40.2% 40.0% 2.50 +0.5%

Away O1.5 69.2% 71.4% 1.40 -3.1%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 65%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob63.3%

A 57% / xG 1.2-2.4 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.4%

#2 1–1 7.8%

#3 0–2 7.6%

#4 1–3 7.5%

#5 0–3 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

TPV1.2

JJK2.4

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.1% · O3.5 PROB 43.9%

Form & verdict PPG

TPV · PPG 1.00

JJK · PPG 2.00

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

TPV (H) 21.6%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -5.6%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -10.1%

JJK (A) 57.5%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -6.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

TPV face JJK in Finland - Ykkonen on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives TPV a 22% chance, the draw 21% and JJK 57%, so JJK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for TPV and 2.4 for JJK (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, TPV are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 2.00 for JJK. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +0.5%.

TPV vs JJK Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Match Preview & Prediction

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