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Union Plaani vs PuiU Helsinki Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A

Group A ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 13:00

Union Plaani

PPG 0.20 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

PuiU Helsinki

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.1% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-17.3%0-26.0%0-33.2%0-4+1.9%1 1-06.6%1-110.8%1-28.8%1-34.8%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.9%2-18.0%2-26.5%2-33.5%2-4+2.1%3 3-02.4%3-13.9%3-23.2%3-31.7%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.0%4+-21.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.7% 33.3% 3.00 +4.1%

Draw 24.4% 27.8% 3.60 -7.3%

Away win 41.0% 52.4% 1.91 -21.7%

Over 2.5 61.0% 73.5% 1.36 -17.0%

Over 3.5 38.9% 54.6% 1.83 -28.8%

BTTS 62.1% 73.5% 1.36 -15.5%

Home O1.5 43.2% 54.6% 1.83 -20.9%

Away O1.5 49.8% 63.7% 1.57 -21.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 81%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 2.2%

Bet Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob62.1%

A 41% / xG 1.5-1.6 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–1✓ 8.0%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 0–0 4.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Union Plaani1.5

PuiU Helsinki1.6

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.0% · O3.5 PROB 38.9%

Form & verdict PPG

UNION PLAANI · PPG 0.20

PUIU HELSINKI · PPG 0.80

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: POOR form (0.80) vs Home POOR (0.20)

Win probability 1X2

Union Plaani (H) 34.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +4.1%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.3%

PuiU Helsinki (A) 41.0%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -21.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Union Plaani face PuiU Helsinki in Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union Plaani a 35% chance, the draw 24% and PuiU Helsinki 41%, so PuiU Helsinki are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Union Plaani and 1.6 for PuiU Helsinki (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union Plaani are averaging 0.20 points per game versus 0.80 for PuiU Helsinki. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +4.1%. This match finished 2-1.

Union Plaani vs PuiU Helsinki Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A

Match Preview & Prediction

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