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Atlantis vs PEPO Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A

Group A ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 13:00

Atlantis

PPG 2.25 · HOME

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

PEPO

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 69.1% vs bookmaker-implied 77.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-13.4%0-23.0%0-31.8%0-4+1.2%1 1-04.1%1-17.4%1-26.5%1-33.9%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.5%2-18.1%2-27.2%2-34.2%2-4+2.8%3 3-03.3%3-15.9%3-25.2%3-33.1%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-15.4%4+-24.8%4+-32.8%4+-4+1.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.1% 45.5% 2.20 +8.0%

Draw 22.2% 27.0% 3.70 -10.7%

Away win 28.7% 40.0% 2.50 -17.0%

Over 2.5 67.1% 78.1% 1.28 -14.1%

Over 3.5 49.0% 57.8% 1.73 -15.2%

BTTS 69.1% 77.5% 1.29 -10.9%

Home O1.5 61.2% 63.7% 1.57 -3.9%

Away O1.5 49.8% 59.9% 1.67 -16.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 81%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 2.2%

Bet Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob69.1%

H 49% / xG 2.2-1.8 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.4%

#2 2–1 8.1%

#3 2–2 7.2%

#4 1–2 6.5%

#5 3–1 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atlantis2.2

PEPO1.8

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.1% · O3.5 PROB 49.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLANTIS · PPG 2.25

PEPO · PPG 1.60

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.25) > Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Atlantis (H) 49.1%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +8.0%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -10.7%

PEPO (A) 28.7%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -17.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atlantis face PEPO in Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atlantis a 49% chance, the draw 22% and PEPO 29%, so Atlantis are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Atlantis and 1.8 for PEPO (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atlantis are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.60 for PEPO. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +8.0%. This match finished 5-1.

Atlantis vs PEPO Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A

Match Preview & Prediction

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