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PPJ vs Kiffen Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A

Group A ·Thursday, July 2, 2026, 16:00

PPJ

PPG 1.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Kiffen

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.1% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-13.8%0-23.1%0-31.7%0-4+1.0%1 1-05.0%1-18.1%1-26.6%1-33.6%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.3%2-18.6%2-27.0%2-33.8%2-4+2.2%3 3-03.8%3-16.1%3-25.0%3-32.7%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-15.4%4+-24.4%4+-32.4%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.0% 43.5% 2.30 +12.7%

Draw 22.2% 30.3% 3.30 -16.0%

Away win 28.8% 40.0% 2.50 -16.8%

Over 2.5 67.1% 71.4% 1.40 -6.1%

Over 3.5 43.9% 50.0% 2.00 -12.2%

BTTS 63.3% 73.5% 1.36 -13.9%

Home O1.5 61.2% 57.8% 1.73 +5.9%

Away O1.5 49.8% 54.6% 1.83 -8.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -9.8%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.3%

H 49% / xG 2.1-1.6 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.1%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 1–2 6.6%

#5 3–1 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

PPJ2.1

Kiffen1.6

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.1% · O3.5 PROB 43.9%

Form & verdict PPG

PPJ · PPG 1.40

KIFFEN · PPG 1.40

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.40), Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

PPJ (H) 49.0%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +12.7%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -16.0%

Kiffen (A) 28.8%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -16.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

PPJ face Kiffen in Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A on Thursday, July 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives PPJ a 49% chance, the draw 22% and Kiffen 29%, so PPJ are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for PPJ and 1.6 for Kiffen (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, PPJ are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.40 for Kiffen. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +19.1%.

PPJ vs Kiffen Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A

Match Preview & Prediction

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