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PEPO vs PPJ Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A

Group A ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 14:00

PEPO

PPG 2.50 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

PPJ

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.6% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-17.9%0-25.7%0-32.8%0-4+1.4%1 1-08.0%1-111.6%1-28.4%1-34.0%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.8%2-18.4%2-26.1%2-32.9%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.8%3-14.1%3-23.0%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.1%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.7% 52.4% 1.91 -24.2%

Draw 24.7% 28.6% 3.50 -8.1%

Away win 35.6% 32.3% 3.10 +10.4%

Over 2.5 61.3% 69.4% 1.44 -11.7%

Over 3.5 37.3% 50.0% 2.00 -25.4%

BTTS 61.6% 73.5% 1.36 -16.2%

Home O1.5 43.5% 61.7% 1.62 -29.5%

Away O1.5 43.8% 45.5% 2.20 -3.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 30.2%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.6%

H 40% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 8.4%

#4 0–0 5.5%

#5 1–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

PEPO1.5

PPJ1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.3% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

PEPO · PPG 2.50

PPJ · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.50) > Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

PEPO (H) 39.7%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -24.2%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -8.1%

PPJ (A) 35.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +10.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

PEPO face PPJ in Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives PEPO a 40% chance, the draw 25% and PPJ 36%, so PEPO are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for PEPO and 1.4 for PPJ (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, PEPO are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 2.00 for PPJ. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +10.4%. This match finished 2-2.

PEPO vs PPJ Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A

Match Preview & Prediction

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