Today / Australia - Capital Territory NPL / Belconnen Utd vs Queanbeyan City

Belconnen Utd vs Queanbeyan City Prediction— Australia - Capital Territory NPL

Matchday 14 ·Saturday, June 20, 2026, 06:30

Belconnen Utd

PPG 0.60 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Queanbeyan City

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 77.8% vs bookmaker-implied 82.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-12.5%0-23.9%0-34.1%0-4+7.0%1 1-01.3%1-14.2%1-26.6%1-36.9%1-4+11.9%2 2-01.1%2-13.6%2-25.6%2-35.9%2-4+10.2%3 3-00.6%3-12.0%3-23.2%3-33.3%3-4+5.8%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-11.3%4+-22.0%4+-32.1%4+-4+3.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.8% 21.1% 4.75 +10.7%

Draw 17.8% 22.7% 4.40 -13.0%

Away win 57.4% 69.4% 1.44 -17.3%

Over 2.5 77.3% 78.1% 1.28 -1.1%

Over 3.5 53.2% 65.4% 1.53 -18.6%

BTTS 68.4% 77.5% 1.29 -11.8%

Home O1.5 51.6% 46.1% 2.17 +12.0%

Away O1.5 77.8% 82.6% 1.21 -5.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 75%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 9.5%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)3.1 BTTS prob68.4%

A 57% / xG 1.7-3.1 / O2.5 77% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 6.9%

#2 1–2✓ 6.6%

#3 2–3 5.9%

#4 2–2 5.6%

#5 1–4 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Belconnen Utd1.7

Queanbeyan City3.1

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 77.3% · O3.5 PROB 53.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BELCONNEN UTD · PPG 0.60

QUEANBEYAN CITY · PPG 1.50

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.50) vs Home POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Belconnen Utd (H) 24.8%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +10.7%

Draw 17.8%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -13.0%

Queanbeyan City (A) 57.4%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -17.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Belconnen Utd face Queanbeyan City in Australia - Capital Territory NPL on Saturday, June 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Belconnen Utd a 25% chance, the draw 18% and Queanbeyan City 57%, so Queanbeyan City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Belconnen Utd and 3.1 for Queanbeyan City (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 77% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Belconnen Utd are averaging 0.60 points per game versus 1.50 for Queanbeyan City. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +12.0%. This match finished 1-2.

Belconnen Utd vs Queanbeyan City Prediction— Australia - Capital Territory NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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