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Belconnen Utd vs Gungahlin Juven Prediction— Australia - Capital Territory NPL

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 06:30

Belconnen Utd

PPG 0.50 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Gungahlin Juven

PPG 2.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 75.9% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-11.8%0-23.0%0-33.2%0-4+5.9%1 1-01.1%1-13.5%1-25.7%1-36.2%1-4+11.4%2 2-01.1%2-13.4%2-25.5%2-36.0%2-4+11.0%3 3-00.7%3-12.2%3-23.6%3-33.9%3-4+7.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.7%4+-22.7%4+-32.9%4+-4+5.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.7% 23.8% 4.20 +9.8%

Draw 16.9% 25.0% 4.00 -19.4%

Away win 55.4% 63.7% 1.57 -13.0%

Over 2.5 75.9% 76.9% 1.30 -1.3%

Over 3.5 53.2% 63.3% 1.58 -15.9%

BTTS 69.1% 78.1% 1.28 -11.6%

Home O1.5 54.7% 49.0% 2.04 +11.6%

Away O1.5 80.3% 79.4% 1.26 +1.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 77%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 27%

ROI -7.7%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)3.2 BTTS prob69.1%

A 55% / xG 1.9-3.2 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 6.2%

#2 2–3 6.0%

#3 1–2 5.7%

#4 2–2 5.5%

#5 1–4 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Belconnen Utd1.9

Gungahlin Juven3.2

COMBINED 5.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.9% · O3.5 PROB 53.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BELCONNEN UTD · PPG 0.50

GUNGAHLIN JUVEN · PPG 2.14

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.14) vs Home POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Belconnen Utd (H) 27.7%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +9.8%

Draw 16.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -19.4%

Gungahlin Juven (A) 55.4%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -13.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Belconnen Utd face Gungahlin Juven in Australia - Capital Territory NPL on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Belconnen Utd a 28% chance, the draw 17% and Gungahlin Juven 55%, so Gungahlin Juven are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Belconnen Utd and 3.2 for Gungahlin Juven (5.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Belconnen Utd are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 2.14 for Gungahlin Juven. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +14.3%. This match finished 0-1.

Belconnen Utd vs Gungahlin Juven Prediction— Australia - Capital Territory NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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