Today / Sweden - Ettan - Norra / Sollentuna vs FBK Karlstad

Sollentuna vs FBK Karlstad Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra - 13 ·Thursday, June 18, 2026, 17:30

Sollentuna

PPG 0.60 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

FBK Karlstad

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.9% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-114.9%0-210.5%0-34.9%0-4+2.4%1 1-08.9%1-112.5%1-28.8%1-34.1%1-4+2.0%2 2-03.7%2-15.2%2-23.7%2-31.7%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.0%3-11.5%3-21.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 28.8% 2.45 -17.7%

Draw 27.8% 3.50 -1.6%

Away win 43.4% 2.45 +6.3%

Over 2.5 49.5% 1.62 -19.8%

Over 3.5 28.1% 2.50 -17.8%

BTTS 51.9% 1.48 -23.2%

Win probability 1X2

Sollentuna (H) 28.8%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -17.7%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -1.6%

FBK Karlstad (A) 43.4%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +6.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -17.7%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob51.9%

A 43% / xG 0.8-1.4 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–1 14.9%

#3 0–0 10.6%

#4 0–2✓ 10.5%

#5 1–2 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sollentuna0.8

FBK Karlstad1.4

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SOLLENTUNA · PPG 0.60

FBK KARLSTAD · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.67) vs Home POOR (0.60)

Match Preview & Prediction

Sollentuna face FBK Karlstad in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Thursday, June 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sollentuna a 29% chance, the draw 28% and FBK Karlstad 43%, so FBK Karlstad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Sollentuna and 1.4 for FBK Karlstad (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sollentuna are averaging 0.60 points per game versus 1.67 for FBK Karlstad. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +6.3%. This match finished 0-2.

Sollentuna vs FBK Karlstad Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Ettan - Norra Predictions