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Arlanda vs Stocksund Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra - 13 ·Thursday, June 18, 2026, 17:15

Arlanda

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Stocksund

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.9% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-12.6%0-21.7%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-05.1%1-16.8%1-24.5%1-32.0%1-4+0.9%2 2-06.6%2-18.8%2-25.9%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-05.7%3-17.7%3-25.1%3-32.3%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-07.0%4+-19.3%4+-26.2%4+-32.8%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 55.8% 1.48 -17.4%

Draw 20.9% 4.60 -2.3%

Away win 23.3% 4.80 +7.1%

Over 2.5 65.9% 1.33 -12.3%

Over 3.5 47.5% 1.85 -12.1%

BTTS 63.4% 1.42 -10.0%

Win probability 1X2

Arlanda (H) 55.8%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -17.4%

Draw 20.9%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -2.3%

Stocksund (A) 23.3%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +7.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -17.7%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.4%

H 56% / xG 2.6-1.3 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.8%

#2 1–1 6.8%

#3 3–1 7.7%

#4 2–0 6.6%

#5 2–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arlanda2.6

Stocksund1.3

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.9% · O3.5 PROB 47.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ARLANDA · PPG 1.50

STOCKSUND · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away POOR (0.80)

Match Preview & Prediction

Arlanda face Stocksund in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Thursday, June 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arlanda a 56% chance, the draw 21% and Stocksund 23%, so Arlanda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Arlanda and 1.3 for Stocksund (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arlanda are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.80 for Stocksund. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +7.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Arlanda vs Stocksund Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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