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Vasalund vs Karlberg Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra - 13 ·Thursday, June 18, 2026, 17:00

Vasalund

PPG 1.80 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Karlberg

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.5% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-14.2%0-23.3%0-31.8%0-4+1.0%1 1-05.4%1-18.6%1-26.8%1-33.6%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.5%2-18.8%2-27.0%2-33.7%2-4+2.1%3 3-03.8%3-16.0%3-24.8%3-32.5%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-14.9%4+-23.9%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 1.77 -12.0%

Draw 22.6% 3.80 -8.5%

Away win 27.8% 3.65 +0.9%

Over 2.5 65.5% 1.44 -5.7%

Over 3.5 42.7% 2.05 -12.5%

BTTS 63.4% 1.40 -11.2%

Win probability 1X2

Vasalund (H) 49.7%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -12.0%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -8.5%

Karlberg (A) 27.8%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +0.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -17.7%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.4%

H 50% / xG 2.0-1.6 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.6%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 1–2 6.8%

#5 3–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vasalund2.0

Karlberg1.6

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.5% · O3.5 PROB 42.7%

Form & verdict PPG

VASALUND · PPG 1.80

KARLBERG · PPG 1.17

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.80) > Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Match Preview & Prediction

Vasalund face Karlberg in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Thursday, June 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vasalund a 50% chance, the draw 23% and Karlberg 28%, so Vasalund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Vasalund and 1.6 for Karlberg (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vasalund are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.17 for Karlberg. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +14.3%. This match finished 0-4.

Vasalund vs Karlberg Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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