Today / Sweden - Ettan - Norra / Hammarby Talang vs Jarfalla

Hammarby Talang vs Jarfalla Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra · Matchday 13 ·Thursday, June 18, 2026, 17:00

Hammarby Talang

PPG 1.40 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Jarfalla

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 76.8% vs bookmaker-implied 84.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-11.7%0-20.9%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-05.0%1-15.2%1-22.7%1-30.9%1-4+0.3%2 2-07.7%2-18.0%2-24.1%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.9%3-18.2%3-24.3%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-013.2%4+-113.7%4+-27.1%4+-32.4%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.2% 84.7% 1.18 -20.7%

Draw 18.0% 17.2% 5.80 +2.6%

Away win 14.8% 8.3% 12.00 +46.6%

Over 2.5 69.7% 76.9% 1.30 -9.4%

Over 3.5 47.5% 56.5% 1.77 -15.9%

BTTS 61.7% 59.9% 1.67 +3.0%

Home O1.5 76.8% 84.7% 1.18 -9.4%

Away O1.5 33.3% 25.3% 3.95 +31.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 64 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -0.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob61.7%

H 67% / xG 3.1-1.0 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.2%

#2 2–1 8.0%

#3 3–0 7.9%

#4 2–0 7.7%

#5 4–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hammarby Talang3.1

Jarfalla1.0

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.7% · O3.5 PROB 47.5%

Form & verdict PPG

HAMMARBY TALANG · PPG 1.40

JARFALLA · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away POOR (0.83)

Win probability 1X2

Hammarby Talang (H) 67.2%

ODDS 1.18 · IMPLIED 84.7% EV -20.7%

Draw 18.0%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +2.6%

Jarfalla (A) 14.8%

ODDS 12.00 · IMPLIED 8.3% EV +46.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hammarby Talang face Jarfalla in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Thursday, June 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hammarby Talang a 67% chance, the draw 18% and Jarfalla 15%, so Hammarby Talang are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for Hammarby Talang and 1.0 for Jarfalla (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hammarby Talang are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.83 for Jarfalla. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +46.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Hammarby Talang vs Jarfalla Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Ettan - Norra Predictions