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Gefle vs Stockholm Inter Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra · Matchday 13 ·Thursday, June 18, 2026, 17:00

Gefle

PPG 1.40 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Stockholm Inter

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 68.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a clear edge.

+11.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-16.0%0-27.5%0-36.3%0-4+7.1%1 1-02.9%1-17.3%1-29.2%1-37.7%1-4+8.8%2 2-01.8%2-14.5%2-25.7%2-34.7%2-4+5.4%3 3-00.7%3-11.9%3-22.3%3-31.9%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.7%4+-20.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 18.0% 21.1% 4.75 -8.7%

Draw 20.9% 26.3% 3.80 -12.3%

Away win 61.0% 62.5% 1.60 -2.4%

Over 2.5 65.9% 58.8% 1.70 +12.0%

Over 3.5 42.7% 36.4% 2.75 +17.4%

BTTS 61.8% 59.9% 1.67 +3.2%

Home O1.5 42.9% 30.8% 3.25 +39.4%

Away O1.5 68.6% 61.7% 1.62 +11.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 64 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -0.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob61.8%

A 61% / xG 1.2-2.5 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.2%

#2 1–1 7.3%

#3 1–3 7.7%

#4 0–2✓ 7.5%

#5 0–3 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gefle1.2

Stockholm Inter2.5

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.9% · O3.5 PROB 42.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GEFLE · PPG 1.40

STOCKHOLM INTER · PPG 1.60

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.40), Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Gefle (H) 18.0%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -8.7%

Draw 20.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -12.3%

Stockholm Inter (A) 61.0%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -2.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gefle face Stockholm Inter in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Thursday, June 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gefle a 18% chance, the draw 21% and Stockholm Inter 61%, so Stockholm Inter are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Gefle and 2.5 for Stockholm Inter (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gefle are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.60 for Stockholm Inter. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +39.4%. This match finished 0-2.

Gefle vs Stockholm Inter Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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