Today / Germany - Bundesliga / E. Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig

E. Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Regular Season - 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 16:30

E. Frankfurt

PPG 1.71 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

RB Leipzig

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 74.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-14.5%0-25.1%0-33.8%0-4+3.6%1 1-03.4%1-17.5%1-28.4%1-36.3%1-4+5.9%2 2-02.8%2-16.3%2-27.0%2-35.2%2-4+4.9%3 3-01.5%3-13.5%3-23.9%3-32.9%3-4+2.7%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-12.1%4+-22.3%4+-31.7%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.7% 30.3% 3.30 -5.3%

Draw 20.2% 25.6% 3.90 -21.2%

Away win 51.0% 51.0% 1.96 -0.0%

Over 2.5 74.7% 69.0% 1.45 +8.3%

Over 3.5 54.7% 47.6% 2.10 +14.9%

BTTS 72.4% 71.4% 1.40 +1.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 66%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob72.4%

A 51% / xG 1.7-2.2 / O2.5 75% / BTTS 72%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.4%

#2 1–1 7.5%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 1–3✓ 6.3%

#5 2–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

E. Frankfurt1.7

RB Leipzig2.2

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.7% · O3.5 PROB 54.7%

Form & verdict PPG

E. FRANKFURT · PPG 1.71

RB LEIPZIG · PPG 1.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.71), Away GOOD (1.71)

Win probability 1X2

E. Frankfurt (H) 28.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -5.3%

Draw 20.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -21.2%

RB Leipzig (A) 51.0%

ODDS 1.96 · IMPLIED 51.0% EV -0.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

E. Frankfurt face RB Leipzig in Germany - Bundesliga on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives E. Frankfurt a 29% chance, the draw 20% and RB Leipzig 51%, so RB Leipzig are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for E. Frankfurt and 2.2 for RB Leipzig (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 72% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, E. Frankfurt are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.71 for RB Leipzig. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +14.9%. This match finished 1-3.

E. Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Germany - Bundesliga Predictions