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Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 13:30

Werder Bremen

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

L ····

UPCOMING

RB Leipzig

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

W ····

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 65% chance

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-15.5%0-23.7%0-31.7%0-4+0.8%1 1-07.5%1-110.2%1-26.9%1-33.1%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.9%2-19.4%2-26.4%2-32.9%2-4+1.3%3 3-04.3%3-15.8%3-23.9%3-31.8%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-14.1%4+-22.8%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.2% 25.0% 4.00 +72.8%

Draw 23.3% 25.6% 3.90 -5.5%

Away win 33.5% 57.1% 1.75 -41.4%

Over 2.5 59.6% 66.7% 1.50 -10.6%

Over 3.5 36.4% 47.6% 2.10 -23.6%

BTTS 55.9% 69.4% 1.44 -19.5%

Home O1.5 55.8% 38.2% 2.62 +46.2%

Away O1.5 42.2% 66.7% 1.50 -36.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 11.9%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob55.9%

H 43% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 1–2 6.9%

#3 2–1 9.4%

#4 2–0 6.9%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Werder Bremen1.8

RB Leipzig1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

WERDER BREMEN · PPG 1.25

RB LEIPZIG · PPG 1.56

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

65%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.49 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Werder Bremen (H) 43.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +72.8%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -5.5%

RB Leipzig (A) 33.5%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -41.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Werder Bremen face RB Leipzig in Germany - Bundesliga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Werder Bremen a 43% chance, the draw 23% and RB Leipzig 34%, so Werder Bremen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Werder Bremen and 1.4 for RB Leipzig (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Werder Bremen are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.56 for RB Leipzig. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +95.0%.

Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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