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Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 13:30

Bayer Leverkusen

PPG 1.71 · HOME

LAST 5

L ····

UPCOMING

Union Berlin

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

D ····

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-13.7%0-22.3%0-30.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-06.9%1-18.5%1-25.2%1-32.1%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.8%2-19.6%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.9%3-17.2%3-24.4%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-05.7%4+-17.0%4+-24.3%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.4% 69.9% 1.43 -23.6%

Draw 22.2% 20.8% 4.80 +3.9%

Away win 24.4% 16.1% 6.20 +30.8%

Over 2.5 61.8% 69.4% 1.44 -11.0%

Over 3.5 40.2% 47.6% 2.10 -15.6%

BTTS 60.2% 63.7% 1.57 -5.5%

Home O1.5 66.3% 73.5% 1.36 -9.8%

Away O1.5 36.8% 32.3% 3.10 +14.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 11.9%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.2%

H 53% / xG 2.3-1.2 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.8%

#4 1–2 5.2%

#5 3–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bayer Leverkusen2.3

Union Berlin1.2

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.8% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BAYER LEVERKUSEN · PPG 1.71

UNION BERLIN · PPG 1.17

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.04 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Bayer Leverkusen (H) 53.4%

ODDS 1.43 · IMPLIED 69.9% EV -23.6%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +3.9%

Union Berlin (A) 24.4%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +30.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bayer Leverkusen face Union Berlin in Germany - Bundesliga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 53% chance, the draw 22% and Union Berlin 24%, so Bayer Leverkusen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.2 for Union Berlin (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bayer Leverkusen are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.17 for Union Berlin. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +27.4%.

Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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