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Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 13:30

Hamburger SV

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

L ····

UPCOMING

FSV Mainz 05

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

D ····

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 48% chance

Model probability 55.8% vs bookmaker-implied 44.4% — a clear edge.

+25.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-15.5%0-23.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-08.9%1-110.3%1-26.0%1-32.3%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.4%2-19.8%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.3%3-16.2%3-23.6%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-14.5%4+-22.6%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.1% 36.4% 2.75 +29.5%

Draw 28.0% 29.4% 3.40 -2.9%

Away win 24.9% 41.7% 2.40 -24.1%

Over 2.5 53.8% 57.8% 1.73 -6.9%

Over 3.5 33.6% 36.4% 2.75 -7.6%

BTTS 52.9% 63.7% 1.57 -17.0%

Home O1.5 55.8% 44.4% 2.25 +25.6%

Away O1.5 33.2% 50.0% 2.00 -33.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 11.9%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.9%

H 47% / xG 1.9-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.4%

#4 1–2 6.0%

#5 0–0 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hamburger SV1.9

FSV Mainz 051.2

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 33.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HAMBURGER SV · PPG 1.44

FSV MAINZ 05 · PPG 1.40

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

48%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.73 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Hamburger SV (H) 47.1%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +29.5%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -2.9%

FSV Mainz 05 (A) 24.9%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -24.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hamburger SV face FSV Mainz 05 in Germany - Bundesliga on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hamburger SV a 47% chance, the draw 28% and FSV Mainz 05 25%, so Hamburger SV are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Hamburger SV and 1.2 for FSV Mainz 05 (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hamburger SV are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.40 for FSV Mainz 05. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +56.3%.

Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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