Today / Germany - Bundesliga / SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg

SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 13:30

SC Paderborn 07

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

D ····

UPCOMING

SC Freiburg

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

LAST 5

W ····

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 60.2% vs bookmaker-implied 40.8% — a clear edge.

+47.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-14.4%0-22.7%0-31.1%0-4+0.5%1 1-07.5%1-19.2%1-25.7%1-32.4%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.8%2-19.7%2-26.0%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.5%3-16.8%3-24.2%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-15.8%4+-23.6%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.4% 29.9% 3.35 +65.5%

Draw 23.8% 27.4% 3.65 -7.9%

Away win 26.8% 49.5% 2.02 -27.5%

Over 2.5 59.6% 60.6% 1.65 -1.7%

Over 3.5 36.8% 37.7% 2.65 -2.5%

BTTS 55.0% 63.7% 1.57 -13.7%

Home O1.5 60.2% 40.8% 2.45 +47.5%

Away O1.5 36.8% 55.6% 1.80 -33.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 11.9%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.0%

H 49% / xG 2.1-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 1–2 5.7%

#4 2–0 7.8%

#5 2–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SC Paderborn 072.1

SC Freiburg1.2

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SC PADERBORN 07 · PPG 1.50

SC FREIBURG · PPG 1.10

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.86 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

SC Paderborn 07 (H) 49.4%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +65.5%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -7.9%

SC Freiburg (A) 26.8%

ODDS 2.02 · IMPLIED 49.5% EV -27.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

SC Paderborn 07 face SC Freiburg in Germany - Bundesliga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 49% chance, the draw 24% and SC Freiburg 27%, so SC Paderborn 07 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.2 for SC Freiburg (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.10 for SC Freiburg. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +101.3%.

SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Germany - Bundesliga Predictions