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Trelleborg vs Skovde AIK Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra - 11 ·Sunday, June 7, 2026, 14:00

Trelleborg

PPG 1.80 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Skovde AIK

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.2% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-17.5%0-22.8%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.3%1-111.6%1-24.4%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.9%2-19.1%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.2%3-14.7%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-12.6%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.2% 76.9% 1.30 -29.5%

Draw 25.0% 20.0% 5.00 +15.0%

Away win 20.8% 13.2% 7.60 +34.8%

Over 2.5 48.7% 65.4% 1.53 -25.5%

Over 3.5 28.0% 42.6% 2.35 -20.5%

BTTS 48.0% 55.6% 1.80 -13.6%

Home O1.5 51.7% 74.1% 1.35 -30.2%

Away O1.5 27.9% 23.8% 4.20 +10.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI 10.8%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.0%

H 54% / xG 1.6-0.8 / U2.5 49% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.3%

#2 1–1 11.6%

#3 2–0 11.9%

#4 0–0 9.8%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Trelleborg1.6

Skovde AIK0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.0%

Form & verdict PPG

TRELLEBORG · PPG 1.80

SKOVDE AIK · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.80) > Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Trelleborg (H) 54.2%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -29.5%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +15.0%

Skovde AIK (A) 20.8%

ODDS 7.60 · IMPLIED 13.2% EV +34.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Trelleborg face Skovde AIK in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Sunday, June 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Trelleborg a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Skovde AIK 21%, so Trelleborg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Trelleborg and 0.8 for Skovde AIK (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Trelleborg are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.50 for Skovde AIK. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +34.8%. This match finished 4-0.

Trelleborg vs Skovde AIK Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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