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Atvidaberg vs Tvaaker Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra - 11 ·Sunday, June 7, 2026, 14:00

Atvidaberg

PPG 2.40 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Tvaaker

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.5% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.1%0-18.6%0-23.0%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.0%1-112.0%1-24.3%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.9%2-18.4%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.6%3-13.9%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-11.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.5% 55.6% 1.80 -7.3%

Draw 26.7% 28.6% 3.50 -3.9%

Away win 21.8% 26.0% 3.85 -9.6%

Over 2.5 48.7% 56.5% 1.77 -13.8%

Over 3.5 28.0% 33.9% 2.95 -10.4%

BTTS 48.0% 59.9% 1.67 -19.8%

Home O1.5 46.9% 55.6% 1.80 -15.6%

Away O1.5 27.9% 33.9% 2.95 -10.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI 10.8%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.0%

H 52% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 49% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.0%

#2 0–0 12.1%

#3 1–1 12.0%

#4 2–0 11.9%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atvidaberg1.4

Tvaaker0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ATVIDABERG · PPG 2.40

TVAAKER · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.40) vs P(Home)=51.5%

Win probability 1X2

Atvidaberg (H) 51.5%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -7.3%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -3.9%

Tvaaker (A) 21.8%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -9.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atvidaberg face Tvaaker in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Sunday, June 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atvidaberg a 52% chance, the draw 27% and Tvaaker 22%, so Atvidaberg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Atvidaberg and 0.7 for Tvaaker (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atvidaberg are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 1.40 for Tvaaker. This match finished 2-2.

Atvidaberg vs Tvaaker Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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