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Arlanda vs Assyriska Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra - 11 ·Sunday, June 7, 2026, 14:00

Arlanda

PPG 1.20 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Assyriska

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.7% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-14.9%0-22.4%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.0%1-19.9%1-24.9%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.0%2-110.0%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.7%3-16.7%3-23.3%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-15.3%4+-22.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 61.0% 1.64 -12.1%

Draw 22.6% 26.3% 3.80 -8.5%

Away win 23.8% 22.2% 4.50 +4.3%

Over 2.5 60.7% 60.6% 1.65 +0.1%

Over 3.5 36.6% 38.5% 2.60 -4.8%

BTTS 55.4% 61.7% 1.62 -10.3%

Home O1.5 55.0% 62.5% 1.60 -12.0%

Away O1.5 28.2% 33.3% 3.00 -9.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -1.2%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.4%

H 54% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–0✓ 10.0%

#3 2–1 10.0%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 3–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arlanda2.0

Assyriska1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ARLANDA · PPG 1.20

ASSYRISKA · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.20), Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Arlanda (H) 53.6%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -12.1%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -8.5%

Assyriska (A) 23.8%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +4.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arlanda face Assyriska in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Sunday, June 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arlanda a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Assyriska 24%, so Arlanda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Arlanda and 1.0 for Assyriska (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arlanda are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.20 for Assyriska. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +4.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Arlanda vs Assyriska Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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