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Sollentuna vs Umea Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra - 11 ·Sunday, June 7, 2026, 13:00

Sollentuna

PPG 0.50 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Umea

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.6%0-113.9%0-27.7%0-32.8%0-4+1.0%1 1-012.2%1-113.5%1-27.4%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-05.9%2-16.5%2-23.6%2-31.3%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.9%3-12.1%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.2% 42.0% 2.38 -16.2%

Draw 29.9% 28.2% 3.55 +3.7%

Away win 34.9% 40.0% 2.50 -12.8%

Over 2.5 44.0% 60.6% 1.65 -27.4%

Over 3.5 23.0% 38.5% 2.60 -24.1%

BTTS 48.0% 66.7% 1.50 -28.0%

Home O1.5 36.7% 50.0% 2.00 -26.6%

Away O1.5 32.0% 47.6% 2.10 -32.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -1.2%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.0%

D 30% / xG 1.0-1.1 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.5%

#2 0–0 12.6%

#3 0–1 13.9%

#4 1–0 12.2%

#5 0–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sollentuna1.0

Umea1.1

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 23.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SOLLENTUNA · PPG 0.50

UMEA · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.40) vs Home POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Sollentuna (H) 35.2%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -16.2%

Draw 29.9%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +3.7%

Umea (A) 34.9%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -12.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sollentuna face Umea in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Sunday, June 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sollentuna a 35% chance, the draw 30% and Umea 35%, so Sollentuna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Sollentuna and 1.1 for Umea (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sollentuna are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 1.40 for Umea. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +3.7%. This match finished 1-1.

Sollentuna vs Umea Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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