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Chojniczanka vs Stalowa Wola Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Regular Season - 28 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 16:00

Chojniczanka

PPG 1.31 · HOME

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Stalowa Wola

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-17.0%0-24.9%0-32.3%0-4+1.1%1 1-08.0%1-111.2%1-27.8%1-33.6%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.4%2-18.9%2-26.2%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-03.4%3-14.8%3-23.3%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.7%4+-21.9%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.5% 48.8% 2.05 -12.9%

Draw 24.2% 33.3% 3.00 -27.4%

Away win 33.4% 30.8% 3.25 +8.6%

Over 2.5 57.6% — — —

Over 3.5 35.2% — — —

BTTS 60.1% 57.8% 1.73 +4.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob60.1%

H 42% / xG 1.6-1.4 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–0 8.0%

#4 1–2 7.8%

#5 0–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chojniczanka1.6

Stalowa Wola1.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.6% · O3.5 PROB 35.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CHOJNICZANKA · PPG 1.31

STALOWA WOLA · PPG 1.08

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.31), Away AVERAGE (1.08)

Win probability 1X2

Chojniczanka (H) 42.5%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -12.9%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -27.4%

Stalowa Wola (A) 33.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +8.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chojniczanka face Stalowa Wola in Poland - II Liga - East on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chojniczanka a 43% chance, the draw 24% and Stalowa Wola 33%, so Chojniczanka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Chojniczanka and 1.4 for Stalowa Wola (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chojniczanka are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 1.08 for Stalowa Wola. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +8.6%. This match finished 3-3.

Chojniczanka vs Stalowa Wola Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Match Preview & Prediction

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