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Hestrafor vs Lindome Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Västra Götaland · Matchday 20 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 11:00

Hestrafor

PPG 1.78 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWDW

UPCOMING

Lindome

PPG 2.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 72% chance

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-14.2%0-24.0%0-32.6%0-4+2.0%1 1-04.1%1-17.9%1-27.7%1-34.9%1-4+3.7%2 2-03.9%2-17.5%2-27.3%2-34.7%2-4+3.5%3 3-02.5%3-14.8%3-24.6%3-33.0%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-13.5%4+-23.4%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.9% 45.5% 2.20 -16.6%

Draw 20.9% 26.3% 3.80 -12.3%

Away win 41.1% 40.0% 2.50 +2.8%

Over 2.5 68.4% 73.5% 1.36 -7.0%

Over 3.5 45.6% 54.6% 1.83 -16.6%

BTTS 63.5% 73.5% 1.36 -13.6%

Home O1.5 55.8% 63.3% 1.58 -11.8%

Away O1.5 58.3% 58.8% 1.70 -0.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 47.0%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob63.5%

A 41% / xG 1.9-1.9 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.7%

#2 1–1 7.9%

#3 2–1 7.5%

#4 2–2 7.3%

#5 1–3 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hestrafor1.9

Lindome1.9

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HESTRAFOR · PPG 1.78

LINDOME · PPG 2.22

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

72%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.03 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hestrafor (H) 37.9%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -16.6%

Draw 20.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -12.3%

Lindome (A) 41.1%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +2.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hestrafor face Lindome in Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hestrafor a 38% chance, the draw 21% and Lindome 41%, so Lindome are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Hestrafor and 1.9 for Lindome (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hestrafor are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 2.22 for Lindome. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +1.0%.

Hestrafor vs Lindome Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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