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Västra Frölunda vs Onsala Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Västra Götaland · Matchday 20 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 11:00

Västra Frölunda

PPG 1.90 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLWL

UPCOMING

Onsala

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 74.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-12.9%0-21.9%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-05.7%1-17.3%1-24.7%1-32.0%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.2%2-19.1%2-25.8%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-06.0%3-17.6%3-24.9%3-32.1%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-06.8%4+-18.6%4+-25.5%4+-32.3%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.4% 49.5% 2.02 +16.0%

Draw 20.1% 28.2% 3.55 -17.2%

Away win 22.5% 36.4% 2.75 -22.9%

Over 2.5 68.4% 74.6% 1.34 -8.3%

Over 3.5 45.0% 53.8% 1.86 -16.3%

BTTS 63.2% 73.0% 1.37 -13.4%

Home O1.5 66.3% 63.7% 1.57 +4.1%

Away O1.5 37.6% 52.4% 1.91 -28.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 47.0%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.2%

H 57% / xG 2.5-1.3 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.3%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 3–1 7.6%

#4 2–0 7.2%

#5 1–2 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Västra Frölunda2.5

Onsala1.3

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

VÄSTRA FRÖLUNDA · PPG 1.90

ONSALA · PPG 1.22

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.22 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Västra Frölunda (H) 57.4%

ODDS 2.02 · IMPLIED 49.5% EV +16.0%

Draw 20.1%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -17.2%

Onsala (A) 22.5%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -22.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Västra Frölunda face Onsala in Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Västra Frölunda a 57% chance, the draw 20% and Onsala 23%, so Västra Frölunda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Västra Frölunda and 1.3 for Onsala (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Västra Frölunda are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.22 for Onsala. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +31.3%.

Västra Frölunda vs Onsala Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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