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Qviding FIF vs Jonsered Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Västra Götaland · Matchday 20 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 10:00

Qviding FIF

PPG 1.56 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLWL

UPCOMING

Jonsered

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 74% chance

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-13.2%0-23.0%0-31.8%0-4+1.3%1 1-03.8%1-17.1%1-26.6%1-34.1%1-4+2.9%2 2-04.2%2-17.8%2-27.2%2-34.5%2-4+3.2%3 3-03.1%3-15.7%3-25.3%3-33.3%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-15.3%4+-24.9%4+-33.0%4+-4+2.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.7% 48.8% 2.05 -10.4%

Draw 20.9% 25.6% 3.90 -11.1%

Away win 35.4% 37.0% 2.70 -4.4%

Over 2.5 68.4% 76.9% 1.30 -11.1%

Over 3.5 49.4% 57.8% 1.73 -14.5%

BTTS 67.8% 75.2% 1.33 -9.8%

Home O1.5 66.0% 66.2% 1.51 -0.3%

Away O1.5 58.3% 56.5% 1.77 +3.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 47.0%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob67.8%

H 44% / xG 2.2-1.9 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.1%

#2 2–1 7.8%

#3 1–2 6.6%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 3–1 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Qviding FIF2.2

Jonsered1.9

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 49.4%

Form & verdict PPG

QVIDING FIF · PPG 1.56

JONSERED · PPG 1.56

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

74%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.35 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Qviding FIF (H) 43.7%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -10.4%

Draw 20.9%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -11.1%

Jonsered (A) 35.4%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -4.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Qviding FIF face Jonsered in Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Qviding FIF a 44% chance, the draw 21% and Jonsered 35%, so Qviding FIF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Qviding FIF and 1.9 for Jonsered (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Qviding FIF are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.56 for Jonsered. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +3.2%.

Qviding FIF vs Jonsered Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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