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Jonkopings vs Trollhattan Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra - 11 ·Saturday, June 6, 2026, 14:00

Jonkopings

PPG 2.40 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Trollhattan

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.7% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-16.0%0-23.1%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.4%1-110.8%1-25.7%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.9%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.7%3-16.0%3-23.1%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-14.1%4+-22.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 64.5% 1.55 -17.8%

Draw 23.5% 26.3% 3.80 -6.4%

Away win 23.5% 19.2% 5.20 +13.3%

Over 2.5 60.7% 58.8% 1.70 +3.2%

Over 3.5 36.3% 37.0% 2.70 -2.0%

BTTS 55.4% 58.8% 1.70 -5.8%

Home O1.5 55.0% 62.5% 1.60 -12.0%

Away O1.5 32.0% 29.0% 3.45 +10.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI 10.8%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.4%

H 53% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 0–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jonkopings1.8

Trollhattan1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.3%

Form & verdict PPG

JONKOPINGS · PPG 2.40

TROLLHATTAN · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.40) > Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Jonkopings (H) 53.0%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -17.8%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -6.4%

Trollhattan (A) 23.5%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV +13.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jonkopings face Trollhattan in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Saturday, June 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jonkopings a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Trollhattan 24%, so Jonkopings are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Jonkopings and 1.0 for Trollhattan (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jonkopings are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 2.00 for Trollhattan. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +13.3%. This match finished 4-1.

Jonkopings vs Trollhattan Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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