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De Treffers vs Katwijk Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Regular Season - 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 16:00

De Treffers

PPG 2.00 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Katwijk

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-14.9%0-22.8%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.4%1-19.8%1-25.7%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.5%2-19.8%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.7%3-16.6%3-23.8%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-15.2%4+-23.0%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.9% 54.1% 1.85 +5.3%

Draw 21.5% 28.6% 3.50 -24.8%

Away win 21.7% 30.8% 3.25 -29.5%

Over 2.5 61.4% — — —

Over 3.5 39.1% — — —

BTTS 59.5% 69.4% 1.44 -14.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 72%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 27.0%

Bet Hit 86%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.5%

H 57% / xG 2.0-1.2 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.8%

#2 1–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.5%

#4 1–0 8.4%

#5 3–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

De Treffers2.0

Katwijk1.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.1%

Form & verdict PPG

DE TREFFERS · PPG 2.00

KATWIJK · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

De Treffers (H) 56.9%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +5.3%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -24.8%

Katwijk (A) 21.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -29.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

De Treffers face Katwijk in Netherlands - Tweede Divisie on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives De Treffers a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Katwijk 22%, so De Treffers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for De Treffers and 1.2 for Katwijk (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, De Treffers are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.40 for Katwijk. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.3%. This match finished 4-1.

De Treffers vs Katwijk Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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