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Katwijk vs Almere City II Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 13:00

Katwijk

PPG 1.59 · HOME

LAST 5

LDW ··

UPCOMING

Almere City II

PPG 1.01 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLL ··

// Model verdict

BTTS 70% chance

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-15.7%0-23.9%0-31.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-07.6%1-110.3%1-27.1%1-33.2%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.8%2-19.3%2-26.4%2-32.9%2-4+1.3%3 3-04.1%3-15.6%3-23.8%3-31.8%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.8%4+-22.6%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.2% 48.8% 2.05 -5.3%

Draw 24.0% 26.3% 3.80 -5.3%

Away win 29.7% 37.0% 2.70 -11.9%

Over 2.5 59.8% 69.4% 1.44 -13.9%

Over 3.5 37.1% 48.5% 2.06 -23.6%

BTTS 61.5% 73.5% 1.36 -16.4%

Home O1.5 49.9% 59.9% 1.67 -16.7%

Away O1.5 42.2% 51.3% 1.95 -17.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 35.8%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.5%

H 46% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 7.1%

#4 2–0 6.8%

#5 1–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Katwijk1.8

Almere City II1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.8% · O3.5 PROB 37.1%

Form & verdict PPG

KATWIJK · PPG 1.59

ALMERE CITY II · PPG 1.01

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.44 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Katwijk (H) 46.2%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -5.3%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -5.3%

Almere City II (A) 29.7%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -11.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Katwijk face Almere City II in Netherlands - Tweede Divisie on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Katwijk a 46% chance, the draw 24% and Almere City II 30%, so Katwijk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Katwijk and 1.4 for Almere City II (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Katwijk are averaging 1.59 points per game versus 1.01 for Almere City II.

Katwijk vs Almere City II Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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