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FBK Karlstad vs Karlstad Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra - 11 ·Friday, June 5, 2026, 17:00

FBK Karlstad

PPG 2.20 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

Karlstad

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-025.0%0-118.6%0-26.9%0-31.7%0-4+0.4%1 1-016.0%1-111.9%1-24.4%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-05.1%2-13.8%2-21.4%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.1%3-10.8%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.6% 40.0% 2.50 -17.1%

Draw 35.4% 33.3% 3.00 +6.2%

Away win 36.0% 40.8% 2.45 -11.8%

Over 2.5 26.8% 55.6% 1.80 -31.1%

Over 3.5 12.6% 33.3% 3.00 -37.3%

BTTS 44.2% 61.7% 1.62 -28.4%

Home O1.5 33.6% 44.4% 2.25 -24.4%

Away O1.5 27.9% 44.4% 2.25 -22.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -1.2%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob44.2%

D 35% / xG 0.6-0.7 / U2.5 27% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 25.0%

#2 0–1 18.6%

#3 1–0 16.0%

#4 1–1 11.9%

#5 0–2 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FBK Karlstad0.6

Karlstad0.7

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 26.8% · O3.5 PROB 12.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FBK KARLSTAD · PPG 2.20

KARLSTAD · PPG 2.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.20), Away EXCELLENT (2.50)

Win probability 1X2

FBK Karlstad (H) 28.6%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -17.1%

Draw 35.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +6.2%

Karlstad (A) 36.0%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -11.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

FBK Karlstad face Karlstad in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Friday, June 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FBK Karlstad a 29% chance, the draw 35% and Karlstad 36%, so Karlstad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for FBK Karlstad and 0.7 for Karlstad (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 27% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FBK Karlstad are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 2.50 for Karlstad. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +6.2%. This match finished 2-3.

FBK Karlstad vs Karlstad Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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