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AFC Eskilstuna vs Karlberg Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra - 11 ·Thursday, June 4, 2026, 17:30

AFC Eskilstuna

PPG 0.40 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Karlberg

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-110.3%0-28.0%0-34.2%0-4+2.3%1 1-07.7%1-111.9%1-29.3%1-34.8%1-4+2.7%2 2-04.4%2-16.9%2-25.4%2-32.8%2-4+1.5%3 3-01.7%3-12.7%3-22.1%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.0%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.6% 41.7% 2.40 -21.8%

Draw 25.0% 27.4% 3.65 -5.3%

Away win 42.4% 41.7% 2.40 +1.8%

Over 2.5 53.8% 67.6% 1.48 -20.4%

Over 3.5 32.2% 45.5% 2.20 -29.2%

BTTS 55.4% 70.4% 1.42 -21.3%

Home O1.5 46.9% 54.1% 1.85 -13.2%

Away O1.5 44.6% 54.1% 1.85 -17.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -1.2%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob55.4%

A 42% / xG 1.2-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 0–1 10.3%

#4 0–0 6.6%

#5 0–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AFC Eskilstuna1.2

Karlberg1.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AFC ESKILSTUNA · PPG 0.40

KARLBERG · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.40) vs Home POOR (0.40)

Win probability 1X2

AFC Eskilstuna (H) 32.6%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -21.8%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -5.3%

Karlberg (A) 42.4%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +1.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

AFC Eskilstuna face Karlberg in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Thursday, June 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AFC Eskilstuna a 33% chance, the draw 25% and Karlberg 42%, so Karlberg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for AFC Eskilstuna and 1.6 for Karlberg (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AFC Eskilstuna are averaging 0.40 points per game versus 1.40 for Karlberg. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +1.8%. This match finished 3-2.

AFC Eskilstuna vs Karlberg Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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