Today / Sweden - Ettan - Norra / Vasalund vs Jarfalla

Vasalund vs Jarfalla Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra - 10 ·Wednesday, June 3, 2026, 17:30

Vasalund

PPG 1.50 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Jarfalla

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.9% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-17.1%0-25.3%0-32.7%0-4+1.4%1 1-07.3%1-111.0%1-28.3%1-34.2%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.6%2-18.5%2-26.4%2-33.2%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.9%3-14.4%3-23.3%3-31.7%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.4%4+-21.8%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.6% 63.7% 1.57 -37.8%

Draw 24.8% 25.6% 3.90 -2.0%

Away win 35.7% 21.1% 4.75 +69.6%

Over 2.5 61.9% 66.7% 1.50 -7.1%

Over 3.5 39.0% 45.5% 2.20 -14.2%

BTTS 61.4% 66.7% 1.50 -7.9%

Home O1.5 51.1% 67.6% 1.48 -24.4%

Away O1.5 44.6% 36.4% 2.75 +22.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -1.2%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.4%

H 40% / xG 1.6-1.5 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 0–0 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vasalund1.6

Jarfalla1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.9% · O3.5 PROB 39.0%

Form & verdict PPG

VASALUND · PPG 1.50

JARFALLA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Vasalund (H) 39.6%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -37.8%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -2.0%

Jarfalla (A) 35.7%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +69.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vasalund face Jarfalla in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Wednesday, June 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vasalund a 40% chance, the draw 25% and Jarfalla 36%, so Vasalund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Vasalund and 1.5 for Jarfalla (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vasalund are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.00 for Jarfalla. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +69.6%. This match finished 3-1.

Vasalund vs Jarfalla Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Ettan - Norra Predictions