Today / Umea FC vs IFK Lulea

Umea FC vs IFK Lulea Prediction

Wednesday, June 3, 2026

Umea FC

PPG 1.25 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

IFK Lulea

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs Home AVERAGE (1.25)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-13.4%0-25.2%0-35.3%0-4+8.8%1 1-01.6%1-14.9%1-27.5%1-37.6%1-4+12.6%2 2-01.1%2-13.5%2-25.4%2-35.5%2-4+9.0%3 3-00.5%3-11.7%3-22.6%3-32.6%3-4+4.3%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.8%4+-21.3%4+-31.3%4+-4+2.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 19.8% — — —

Draw 19.0% — — —

Away win 61.3% — — —

Over 2.5 73.6% — — —

Over 3.5 54.4% — — —

BTTS 63.6% — — —

Home O1.5 46.9% — — —

Away O1.5 77.8% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)3.1 BTTS prob63.6%

A 61% / xG 1.4-3.1 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3✓ 7.6%

#2 1–2 7.5%

#3 1–4 5.9%

#4 1–1 4.9%

#5 2–3 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Umea FC1.4

IFK Lulea3.1

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.6% · O3.5 PROB 54.4%

Form & verdict PPG

UMEA FC · PPG 1.25

IFK LULEA · PPG 2.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs Home AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Umea FC (H) 19.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 19.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

IFK Lulea (A) 61.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Umea FC face IFK Lulea on Wednesday, June 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Umea FC a 20% chance, the draw 19% and IFK Lulea 61%, so IFK Lulea are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Umea FC and 3.1 for IFK Lulea (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Umea FC are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 2.25 for IFK Lulea. This match finished 1-3.

Umea FC vs IFK Lulea Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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