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Barra FC vs Brusque Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 9 ·Monday, June 1, 2026, 23:00

Barra FC

PPG 1.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Brusque

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.3%0-112.8%0-26.7%0-32.3%0-4+0.8%1 1-013.0%1-113.5%1-27.0%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-06.8%2-17.1%2-23.7%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.4%3-12.5%3-21.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.8%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.1% 45.5% 2.20 -25.0%

Draw 30.1% 32.3% 3.10 -6.7%

Away win 35.7% 31.3% 3.20 +14.2%

Over 2.5 39.9% 42.6% 2.35 -6.2%

Over 3.5 22.5% 23.1% 4.33 -1.5%

BTTS 47.2% 51.3% 1.95 -8.0%

Home O1.5 28.4% 40.8% 2.45 -18.3%

Away O1.5 27.9% 30.8% 3.25 -5.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -25.7%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob47.2%

D 30% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 12.3%

#3 1–0 13.0%

#4 0–1 12.8%

#5 2–1 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Barra FC1.1

Brusque1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.9% · O3.5 PROB 22.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BARRA FC · PPG 1.25

BRUSQUE · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Barra FC (H) 34.1%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -25.0%

Draw 30.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -6.7%

Brusque (A) 35.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +14.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Barra FC face Brusque in Brazil - Serie C on Monday, June 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Barra FC a 34% chance, the draw 30% and Brusque 36%, so Brusque are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Barra FC and 1.0 for Brusque (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Barra FC are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.25 for Brusque. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +17.5%.

Barra FC vs Brusque Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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